The real estate problems are spreading……

My next interest rate class will be held on Wednesday, October 17th at 6pm at our new location (mid-Wilshire). This two-hour class is an excellent addition to my newsletter. I will review my current interest rate forecast and give each attendee a 50 page book of charts. Advance registration is required and we will discuss hedging strategies for those borrowers that want to take advantage of lower rates without having to refinance existing mortgages.

Weeks ago my daily subscribers were told the dollar would fall against the Euro and gold was on its way to $750 per ounce. Would you like to have up to the minute information about interest rates, the economy and real estate? Did you know that I write a daily edition of the EWW packed with breaking news and insight that I have accumulated during the day? The cost for this daily e-mail is only $100 and you will receive every update through 12/31/07. Just complete this form and fax or mail to my office.

It’s quiz time – the following is a quote from a report issued on 9-25 from the Fed, FDIC, OCC and OTS (four government agencies) and is MUST reading for all EWW readers. “Examiners noted a significant volume of loans with liberal repayment terms such as little to no amortization prior to maturity, reliance on refinancing as a primary source of repayment, and lack of meaningful financial loan covenants such as leverage and fixed charge coverage ratios. Examiners also noted the backlog of leveraged loan commitments that cannot currently be distributed without incurring potential market losses and may need to be retained in portfolio.” The question: Doesn’t this sound like something dealing with sub-prime house mortgages? Of course it does and no one would be surprised to be reading that at any time this year. The really, really BIG problem is that this report has nothing to do with the residential mortgage market as it pertains only to large commercial real estate loans.

In February of this year we were told by “experts” that problems in the mortgage market were related only to sub-prime and the remainder of the market was healthy. A few months later Alt-A became a problem but again we were told it was not anything to worry about and was contained to a small part of the lending market. In May interest rates rose as the consensus jumped on the “strong second quarter with an increase in inflation” wagon that led to massive losses for those that bet on higher rates. The next consensus formed from those that told us commercial real estate remained strong so the housing market problems were again a small part of the economic landscape. Of course rates fell hard after July 1st (as we wrote all year in the EWW, see archives for details) as the reality of a weaker economy set in and expectations had to be changed once again by those that are riding a long losing streak with their forecasts. Lastly the Fed ease 10 days ago has been met with more forecasts of higher rates accompanied by inflation due to an easing of monetary policy. Now we receive this report from the Fed, etc. that the commercial market has the same problems brewing that cratered the residential market.

Normally markets do a decent job of discounting future events but this occurs in markets that are much more efficient than the real estate and mortgage market. 2007 will be remembered by most forecasters as a year characterized by one theme…”I never thought this could happen and I had never seen this before.” A quote from a Scottsdale, Arizona real estate agent said it best on Tuesday: “I think we are pretty much at the bottom at this point, it’s probably one of the best markets I’ve ever seen for a buyer.” He is telling us about the market from “his” history which may or may not be very long but it brings up the most important point for this year and that is again….we only see life from our own experiences. This realtor is seeing the real estate market from his past and if prices are lower next year (99% probability) he will again see prices as the best he has ever seen. My new question for real estate agents is: “How do you know when it is a bad time to buy real estate?” I would be very interested in hearing the answer to this question as the majority of agents I hear from say it is always a good time to buy real estate and that is of course true from their point of view because 1) every dip in prices over the past 30 years has been proven to be a good buying opportunity and 2) there is really no effective way to short (bet on lower prices) real estate so everyone looks at the market from a long side approach only.

The real risk for the economy is NOT the residential market but the unknowns from the commercial market which are clearly stated in the above report. If the CMBS (commercial mortgage backed securities) market does not loosen up by January 2008 then the economic contraction that began in June of this year will accelerate to levels we have not seen since the 1930’s.

The Fed’s next move

The 10-year US Treasury has risen 12 basis points since the Fed cut the Funds rate by 50 basis points on fears that this move will reignite inflation fears. These same bond bears point to the price of gold which closed today at $742.80 as confirmation of their worries. The next Fed meeting will take place on October 30-31 with a statement delivered at 11:15am. The action of the past 10 days reminds me of the early 80’s with the “bond vigilantes” helping to keep rates in check and theoretically helping the Fed with its monetary policy. Gold has risen in the past few weeks from uncertainty regarding world economic trends as much as it has from inflation fears. It’s important to remember that expectations are not always met with the same reality at a later date. Markets often expect events that turn out to be the opposite of what occurs and the May rise in long-term rates is a great example of markets moving on expectations that were clearly not met.

The key to the next Fed move is the Libor rate which is the primary borrowing rate for corporations and most variable rate real estate loans. The three month US Libor rate is 5.23% and that is 48 basis points above the current Funds rate of 4.75%. The typical spread is about 10 bp so the recent Fed ease has put us back to where we were a few months ago. If the global liquidity situation does not improve over the next 30 days the Fed will come back and lower the Funds rate 25bp in an effort to reduce the US Libor rate.

The Fed will be paying very close attention to Friday’s (10/05) jobs report where the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.7%. Anything close to last month’s disaster of four thousand jobs lost will put intense pressure on the Fed to ease again as it has clearly gone from inflation fighting to trying to save the economy in a matter of weeks. Consumer credit will be released on the same day as I expect to again see the consumer loading up on credit card debt as the ability to draw cash out of a home has diminished. The bond market’s reaction next Friday will be quick and volatile as trading will cease early for the long Columbus Day holiday weekend.

The US economy and the dollar

This morning’s report that personal spending rose .3 and spending rose .6 shows the consumer still has energy and buying power but this is slowly coming to an end. When the consumer spends more than they earn there are two ways in which this occurs with the first an increase in borrowing or the other coming from an increase in the value of assets (stocks, etc.). We are witnessing an increase in credit card debt and the stock market advance is assisting the need to spend but for the average wage earner it will be the former more than the latter. This is why we continue to see high-end retail stores do much better than stores such as Wal-Mart and Target.

The dollar’s decline (especially against the Euro) has everyone worried about an increase in inflation and that is one of the reason’s we have seen a slight increase in long-term rates over the past two weeks. Clearly the US Treasury (and Fed?) don’t seem to mind a dollar depreciation because it brings in foreign buyers of our goods and services at what they see as bargain prices. But isn’t this the same thing that happened to the Japanese in the late 80’s when they purchased a massive amount of US real estate and then were forced to sell at much lower prices when their own economy (and real estate) plummeted into a recession accompanied by deflation?

The world financial markets will soon realize the real estate problems are not confined to the US and as we have seen in England these liquidity issues are spreading to most major global markets. The dollar bears are in complete control for now and trying to fight them is probably a losing battle but sooner than later we will see the dollar rally as our problems become their problems.

Interest rates

We have NOT seen the lows in long-term interest rates for this cycle as the market has not yet realized how the real estate problems have spread to the remainder of the economy. The consumer is on life support and the commercial real estate market is wavering but at least our trade deficit is narrowing. For the next week pay close attention to the US Libor rate (5.23%) and the Yen Libor rate (1.03%). The yen closed today at 114.81 to the dollar and its next move out of the current trading range (113-116) will tell us much about the direction of world wide markets. If the US Libor rate does not begin to fall the Fed will be forced to move again with another Funds rate cut. Lastly it almost never pays to fight a bull market and bonds are clearly in an uptrend (rates down) so unless we see a move above 4.82% in the US 10-year I would continue to load up the truck with a bet on much lower rates in the coming months.

There were very unusual movements in the US bond market today and I will cover that and more in my next daily e-mail which will be sent on Sunday evening around 9pm.

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends……

My next interest rate class will be held on Wednesday, October 17th at 6pm at our new location (mid-Wilshire). This two-hour class is an excellent addition to my newsletter. I will review my current interest rate forecast and give each attendee a 50 page book of charts. Advance registration is required and we will discuss hedging strategies for those borrowers that want to take advantage of lower rates without having to refinance existing mortgages.

Weeks ago my daily subscribers were told the dollar would fall against the Euro and gold was on its way to $750 per ounce. Would you like to have up to the minute information about interest rates, the economy and real estate? Did you know that I write a daily edition of the EWW packed with breaking news and insight that I have accumulated during the day? The cost for this daily e-mail is only $100 and you will receive every update through 12/31/07. Just complete this form and fax or mail to my office.

…..we’re so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside….there behind a glass stands a blade of grass, be careful as you pass, move along, move along, – courtesy of Emerson, Lake and Palmer (1973)

This has been an extraordinary week for interest rates and Fed policy and for the last four days I have been humming the words to this song. (Late at night I need something other than Bloomberg to keep me awake.)

The world markets have put on quite a show since Tuesday and the glass wall refers to the Fed but the blade of grass refers to the fact that the markets are real 24-hours a day as they process what has happened, what they believe will happen in the future and most importantly act from their past experiences. I have often thought about what I would like on my gravestone when I leave this earth and with so many Goldingerisms my tombstone will need to be very large. For sure one of my often repeated quotes must lead the parade….we only see life ahead from our own past experiences.

The Fed and Libor

This past Tuesday the Fed caught up with economic reality when it lowered the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points (I had predicted 37.5 last week) to its new target level of 4.75%. It really had no choice as the Libor rate had jumped in the last few weeks to far above its normal level versus the funds rate. Most of the press noted the Fed ease but somehow forgot to inform everyone that market rates were soaring on the news and only banks borrow at the Funds rate. Most variable rate mortgage loans and some fixed rate loans are tied to the Libor rate not the Funds rate so borrowing costs had actually risen in the past month for many homeowners. Of course the Libor rate rose due to a lack of transparency in the credit markets for asset backed collateral and even with the Funds rate cut we see the 3-month Libor rate trading today at 5.20% instead of a more normal 4.85% or lower. Six month Libor is 5.09% but that rate is almost 50 bp above where the market believes the Funds rate will be in December. It’s important to note that Libor is NOT one rate, there is a dollar/Libor, yen/Libor (1.00%), Euro/Libor (4.74%), Pound/Libor (6.365%) etc. and they all trade independently of each other.

How often do we get a 2nd chance to back up the truck?

As most of my long-term readers are aware, I spent the first half of 2007 telling anyone who would listen that interest rates would begin a serious decline in the 2nd half of this year. When the 10-year rose in June to 5.30% I didn’t change my stance and lowered the yellow flag in July while advising everyone to back up the truck for bonds soon thereafter. Most bull markets leave potential passengers at the station without another point of entry as everyone waits for the pullback that never arrives and only enters when the train is nearing its final destination. The bond market’s reaction over the past 3.5 days to the Fed’s change has been violent as the 10-year has risen 24 basis points and a total of 38 in just the last 8 trading days. When the 10-year was 4.32% the world was in a panic and fearing further credit problems and now with the 10-year close to 4.70% the world sees nothing but inflation storms on the way. How could expectations change so much in eight days? If the Fed had lowered the funds rate by 25 basis points would the markets have reacted similarly? What about no change in the Funds rate? Can markets filter information that quickly and see the future clearly?

The answers to these questions are not easy but must be answered to see clearly where we are going in the next few months and into 2008-09. Let’s begin with former Chairman Alan Greenspan whose new book was released this week and who has made more TV, radio, newspaper, internet video appearances than any Presidential candidate this year. He even made it to Comedy Central after his initial appearance on 60 Minutes. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend the book unless you are having trouble sleeping through the night (magnesium is better and quicker) but as always I have reviewed all of the transcripts for the interviews and read each of the newspaper articles that appeared across the globe. We learned a few things that are somewhat interesting such as his favorite economic indicator is the sales of men’s underwear and that he wrote his best speeches in his bathtub. The most important point that the markets have clearly not understood is that the Bernanke Fed is NOT in any way similar to the Greenspan Fed. After 19 years in office the world financial community became familiar with Greenspan speak and actions from the Fed although at the beginning in 1987 there was much confusion due to everyone believing he was going to act like his predecessor Paul Volcker. Chairman Greenspan picked up a reputation for always bailing out markets when it seemed they would plunge further with some perceived disregard for the inflationary consequences. I’m not sure I agree but that is a subject that should be discussed in a saloon one night (I don’t drink) because both sides have strong arguments.

Our main focus is on this week’s bond market reaction to the Fed change in policy. Using Greenspan history as its guide, bond investors sold and sold more this week and decided that they would analyze current economic events at a later date. Has anything changed? Of course not, the funds rate decrease actually confirms what I have been writing all year in the EWW (and my daily e-mails) that the economy has entered a recession (6/07) and that consumer spending is about to drop off a cliff as the never say die US shopaholic family is on life support. With the home mortgage ATM window closed to the average borrower we are seeing a dramatic increase in credit card debt as many homeowners try to hold on even at 15%+ interest rates. Businesses appear to be borrowing according to weekly Fed reports but its temporary as commercial paper lines are being extinguished due to the lack of disclosure in the pricing of many pieces of collateral. Last week commercial paper outstanding fell another $48.1 billion with only $15.6 coming from asset-backed (mortgages) securities. Over the past 5 weeks CP has fallen $263.4 billion (12.8%) with $205 coming from asset backed paper (-19.4%). The so called experts see a strong economy due to heavy loan demand from banks but aren’t factoring in the decline in CP that is causing a rush to the bank lending window.

This week’s pull back which could easily go to the 5.82% level on the 10 year (50% retracement of June/September move) gives us another outstanding opportunity to back up the truck and lock in what will soon be seen as high yields. For borrowers the good news is that rates are headed much lower but unfortunately spreads may not follow as credit quality issues will be with us for the next few months. The ultimate frustration for real estate borrowers will be a decline in Treasury rates that does not bring a reduction in spreads so they must find ways to lock in these lower rates (under 4%) using other vehicles some of which we discuss each month in my interest rate class.

Falling home prices

According to an analysis by Moody’s home prices will decline by up to 25% (Stockton) over the next 1-2 years. Most people seem to be focusing on buying under the theory that real estate prices always rise over time but recent events may show that those entering the market now will suffer a decline in their equity before seeing any appreciation in later years. A story from today’s Miami Herald details an auction last night that brought lower prices for newly built condos. In May, a one-bedroom brought $360,000 but a similar condo sold last night for less than $220,000. The best quote in the article is: “Many people who bought a few months ago are now upside down. The place isn’t worth what they borrowed, & next week or the week after, look for lawsuits on this building.” Last weekend I wrote about a sale by Hovnanian (homebuilder) and today’s Sacramento Bee reports 47 homes were sold in the California Capital. I’m sure the prices were much less than existing sellers were offering and that is going to create a BIG problem for homeowners trying to find buyers. Home builders must get rid of their inventory so they can replenish their capital and do this by lowering home prices. They are in business and what doesn’t sell quickly gets sold at much lower prices. The typical homeowner doesn’t see it as a business and is much more reluctant to lower prices so they are always following the market and for the next few years it will be down, down, down…….

The final insult for condo owners is that we are seeing more “reversions” – where condo buildings are converted into apartment buildings – than at any time since the early 1980’s. The good news is that rental rents will soon decline giving consumers more to spend or save but for the condo owner it probably means higher borrowing rates as lenders don’t like to give lower rates unless the building has at least 60% owner-occupants.

Conforming vs. Non-Conforming

Mortgage brokers and borrowers will soon have good news as I expect Congress to pass legislation raising the limits on conforming mortgages (probably 50%) from its current level of $417,000. Initially it may only be a temporary move but rarely does Congress take something away from taxpayers in an election year. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac will also be allowed to purchase more mortgages but as I have written before the main beneficiaries will be those whose loans can be underwritten at full principal and interest payments. In a Thursday hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed head Bernanke and Treasury Sec’y Paulson both admitted that for the vast majority of underwater homeowners nothing can be done because they couldn’t afford their mortgage payments when they purchased the house and now are upside down because of a drop in home values. I still believe the only way out is for Congress to allow banks to take over the houses and rent them back to the home owners with an option to buy back if values increase or they win the lottery, etc.

Summary

The Fed’s action this week is simply a catch up to reality and nothing more. The contagion from the mortgage market will continue to spread to the overall economy and consumer. Yes, the dollar’s decline will help narrow our trade deficit and soften the blow to those companies that receive the majority of their revenue from exports. Interest rates have NOT seen their lows for this cycle and those looking for an explosion from inflation will be disappointed when they realize the economy, real estate prices, and consumer spending entered a recession in June 2007. As usual the EWW stands alone in its forecast with not much cover but as we like to say: The majority would rather lose in company than win alone. The risk/reward of a bet on lower rates offers tremendous opportunity to those willing to stand alone.

The winner is………?????

Last call for my next interest rate class on Wednesday, September 19th at 6pm in West Hollywood. This two hour class is an excellent addition to my newsletter. I will review my current interest rate forecast and give each attendee a 25 page book of charts. We will discuss the outcome of the 9/18 FOMC meeting and future Fed moves. We have just two seats remaining and advance registration is required.

My daily subscribers were alerted on Monday evening (9/10) that the 10-year Treasury needed a rest and would probably rise back to the 4.50% level. Would you like to have up to the minute information about interest rates, the economy and real estate? Did you know that I write a daily edition of the EWW packed with breaking news and insight that I have accumulated during the day? The cost for this daily e-mail is only $100 and you will receive every update through 12/31/07. Just complete this form and fax or mail to my office.

The secret envelope will be opened at 11:17am on Tuesday, September 18th with the contents revealing the FOMC decision on the Fed Funds rate accompanied by a most important statement. I have been following the Fed and interest rates for 40 years and don’t remember a time where uncertainty prevailed about the future of Fed policy. We have three distinct forecasts by the “experts” concerning next Tuesday’s Fed announcement and after 19 years of Greenspan’s “gut feel” leadership we are now face to face with a very different leader (Bernanke). Setting the table for Tuesday finds one set of forecasts urging the Fed to not move the Funds rate and let those that took risk through the purchase of mortgages to suffer the consequences of a bad investment. The second camp seeks a Fed decision that lowers the Funds rate by 25 basis points which would put place the Funds rate at 5.00% which is the average level that the Funds rate has traded for the last 30 days. If the Fed chooses this route they will have followed the market’s action and showing the markets that it has forgotten its duty to lead the economy. With the 3 month Libor rate comfortably trading at 5.65% this decision would clearly not have a positive effect on market psychology. The last choice for the Fed would be a 50 basis point decrease to 4.75% accompanied by a statement that the Fed clearly understands the general economy is now showing signs of a slowdown and that inflation is no longer the #1 problem. My prediction will be given at the end of this letter but regardless of the Fed’s next move long term interest rates are headed much lower before the end of this year.

The key borrowing rate

Do you know anyone whose borrowing rate is tied to the Fed Funds rate (5.25%)? Most home loans (variable rate) are tied to Libor and many fixed rate loans are a function of the spread to Treasury note rates. Prime used to be an important interest rate to borrowers but now is mostly used for credit lines with Libor clearly the important rate to corporate borrowers. In the last six weeks the Libor and commercial paper rates have risen despite a decline in Treasury market rates, so the typical individual or corporate borrower has seen an increase in their borrowing costs. Effectively the Fed has tightened in the past 30 days as the normal relationship between the Funds rate and Libor is about 10 basis points. Do you believe the Fed wanted this to occur in an environment where the economy has turned down and most likely begun a recession? The Fed is fearful that if they lower the Funds rate to 4.75% and Libor does NOT move down by an equal amount they will have used up precious ammunition when they really don’t have that many bullets in their holster.

The consumer is stumbling

Last Friday’s surprise was the jobs number and this morning we saw that retail sales grew by 0.3% in August. When you combine June and July with last month we have three months of 0.00% growth and it is clear to me the consumer has begun a major retrenchment in spending. Oil at $80 per barrel will seal the deal as gasoline is generally an inelastic item with demand not responding to price changes for many months. Consumer credit stats released earlier this week showed that credit card debt continues to rise as borrowers have been shut off from house loans due to much tighter underwriting guidelines by those mortgage lenders still in business.

Home builders & car dealers

Each Friday newspapers around the country are filled with full page ads from car dealers offering “special, once in a lifetime” prices for this weekend only. We have become accustomed to these ads and they have become a normal part of the shopping process for a new car. This morning Hovnanian Enterprises (home builder) announced a three day sale of 1,000 homes this weekend with discounts of up to $150,000. The CEO also told anyone who would listen that the bottom of the housing market is “very near.” Should we have expected anything but unbridled optimism? They are stuck with a huge amount of inventory and must reduce prices to stop the hemorrhaging of red ink on the income statement. This reminds me of the ad last year by the National Association of Realtors telling everyone it was the best time ever to buy a house but also saying it was the best time ever to sell a house. They did get 50% of their statement correct but this ad blew the little credibility the NAR had with realtors and they have since revised their predictions of a real estate bottom to more reasonable levels. I have written many times that it is almost impossible for a residential RE agent to be objective about market conditions since there is no effective and liquid way to go short (bet on lower prices) the housing market. Because we only see the future from our past scoreboard most agents tell us that real estate prices always rise…..yes, but not always at a greater rate than inflation.

A view from across the pond

Sometimes the picture is clearer from a long distance as the emotions of the moment don’t impact your views. Wednesday (9/12) Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England (similar to Bernanke’s position) sent a letter to John McFall, member of Parliament, clearly explaining the causes of the most recent mortgage meltdown and addressed the subject of a central banks options to solve these problems. The Bank of England clearly believes that any aid given to those who purchased mortgages should only be assisted with injections of liquidity at much HIGHER interest rates to not encourage further risk taking in the future. Mr. King felt that the financial system was functioning properly and this short-term problem was simply a matter of markets under pricing risk and that economic stability would return quickly. I am sure Mr. Bernanke read this letter and probably speaks with Governor King frequently as they seem to have very similar views regarding market intervention by central banks. This morning Governor King had a quick change in policy as the Bank of England quickly came to the rescue of Northern Rock with an emergency loan (3rd largest British home lender with 800,000 mortgage customers) as they found rising short-term interest rates (Libor) and a lack of liquidity for their mortgages created a need for funds in the next 24 hours.

A bottom forming in Detroit real estate?

Do you like to bottom fish? Do you have a lot of patience? The really big money in real estate has always been made by those who have long term vision and deep pockets. Could Detroit be the next turnaround or just another dream for those who have been down this road in the past? A story in today’s Detroit Press could be the early beginnings of something positive for a city that has been at the very bottom of the real estate boom of the past 20 years. A $100 million dollar fund has been created to support an economy less dependent on auto manufacturing and the key to a bottom is always recognition that things have changed and a new trend will start with risk taking and a change in outlook. It’s early but the returns could be interesting in a few years. Detroit is definitely a city no one would consider so properties are very cheap but a huge amount of patience is needed for investors.

Next week

The big news is Tuesday and everything else is secondary but CPI (inflation) is released on Wednesday at 5:30am and should show inflation well under the 2% key rate. Markets hate uncertainty and usually rise after an event is known no matter the result so we may see a relief rally after Tuesday’s Fed statement. The 10-year reached a low of 4.31% in Monday evening trading and bounced back to 4.46% today which was expected (my daily readers received any e-mail Monday night warning that a pull back was imminent) and needs to rest a little more before attacking the 4.25% and below regions. Recognition that the US economy is much weaker (led by a decline in consumer spending) than anticipated will pave the way to much lower long-term rates before year end. The dollar’s weakness has garnered headlines but I’m sure the Treasury (Paulson) sees this as a necessary ingredient to prevent the economy from slipping even further into a long recession.

The Fed will……..

I almost never agree with the majority and began this letter with three different scenarios for Fed action on Tuesday. The consensus sees a 25 bp decrease with the optimists at 50bp decline and the pessimists at no change. I will go for the truly unusual and predict a 37.5 basis point decrease placing the Fed Funds rate at 4.875% and giving a little room for the effective rate to drop and allowing the Libor rate to fall from its lofty level of 5.65%. If the Fed does follow my lead it will be luck more than skill as the really important point to note is that the Fed does NOT lead market rates but simply follows them in the new Bernanke regime and that is a major change from the Greenspan Fed. Every Fed Chairman leaves a legacy based upon action or inaction and it took Volcker a few years to make his mark as an inflation fighter and Greenspan a few years to become God-like so Bernanke is only in the 2nd inning of his term and a long 9 innings of work is ahead of him and his FOMC team. Very few leaders have succeeded by governing from a consensus and Mr. Bernanke must be commended for encouraging everyone to give him input before making a decision that will please everyone. Monetary policy is tough and highly risky but the best Fed Chairmen have a “sixth sense” about economic conditions and although not always making the right decision we as a country are much better off “economically” today than we were 10, 20, 30 years ago so it is time for Mr. Bernanke to roll up his sleeves and make a few really tough decisions and not look back……Volcker did it, Greenspan did it and Bernanke can do it now.

I look forward to seeing many of you at Wednesday evening’s interest rate class.

Economic reality – Phase 1

My next interest rate class will be held on Wednesday, September 19th at 6pm in West Hollywood. This two hour class is an excellent addition to my newsletter. I will review my current interest rate forecast and give each attendee a 25 page book of charts. We will discuss the outcome of the 9/18 FOMC meeting and future Fed moves. Space is limited and advance registration is required.

Isn’t it frustrating waiting until Friday afternoon for your FREE copy of my interest rate newsletter? Would you like to have up to the minute information about interest rates, the economy and real estate? Did you know that I write a daily edition of the EWW packed with breaking news and insight that I have accumulated during the day? The cost for this daily e-mail is only $100 and you will receive every update through 12/31/07. Just complete this form and fax or mail to my office.

Last week I wrote about the different parts of an economic cycle and emphasized that we were in the expectations part of the current cycle. This morning at 5:30am the Fed and everyone else (except the EWW readers) received an urgent 911 call from the Labor department as the jobs report was even worse than reported by the press and quickly moved us into a new reality phase. The headline of a drop in 4,000 jobs sent interest rates, stocks and the dollar falling with the US 10-year treasury closing at a year-to-date low of 4.38%. Looking under the hood of the economic car (US economy) we see that the monthly seasonal adjustment (birth/death model) actually ADDED 120,000 jobs to the August job survey so the unadjusted number was -124,000. 75% of the jobs created in the past year are coming from a very faulty seasonal adjustment figure and this is easy to see when one views the monthly after the fact adjustments that don’t receive much press each month. This morning the other big announcement was that last months jobs number was reduced by 24,000 and June 57,000 which again shows the government is overestimating job growth and using a faulty seasonal adjustment model. Today’s report was the 11th consecutive August report where the consensus predicted a number higher than the actual job count. With futures markets available on everything there should be a way for investors to make money by betting against the “experts.”

The jobs report also showed that only 51.3% of industries showed any job growth down from 57.4% last month. Temporary jobs fell again last month by 13,000 and the last 12 months show a decline of 62,000. If the economy was really as strong as the Fed wants us to believe wouldn’t businesses be hiring a few temporary workers? The unemployment rate held at 4.6% only because there were more individuals that left the work force (340M) than those who lost their jobs (316M). This will surely change next month and I fully expect this rate to reach 5.0% in the next few months. Today’s news even woke up the politicians in Washington as Rep. Barney Frank called for the Fed to lower the funds rate in a “meaningful way.” The Fed has enough troubles now as they try to recover from being run over by the interest rate market that clearly saw the storm clouds and now has to find a way to calm those in Washington who have left the Fed alone for the past 25 years.

Mortgage lenders can’t stop the bleeding

This afternoon Countrywide announced a job cut of 20% of their work force (12,000) as they desperately attempt to stay afloat with a much smaller business model. For those mortgage professionals who believe that we will soon see a return to narrower lending spreads I warn that the system that made so much $$ for so many has changed and lenders will now try and make money the old fashioned way…use the government to guarantee the risk. Countrywide realizes that the conforming (417M) market for loans is much smaller so they must shrink the company to have any hope of living to fight another day.

This morning Michael Perry, the CEO of Indy Mac, had a blunt assessment of the state of the mortgage market when he told shareholders that his firm has also converted their mortgage production to a government guaranteed loan model. The company is cutting its dividend (50%) and expects loan volume to shrink by 50% in the fourth quarter due to the fact that “private secondary mortgage markets have significantly worsened.”

The economy has now entered the realization phase where consumers see and hear that times have changed and they must cut back on spending because the normal outlets for borrowing (home) are gone. The consensus all year has been that there was no contagion but unfortunately the Fed is about to learn a most painful lesson that my EWW readers learned a long time ago: we only see life from our experiences and that because we have never witnessed an event does NOT mean it won’t or can’t occur. The experienced real estate agents and mortgage brokers told us all year that they had lived through the early 80’s and 90’s and this meltdown was no different but they too have learned that history does repeat but not the way in which we expect.

Gold and the dollar

We saw gold rally this week to the $700 level accompanied by a fall in the dollar versus the yen and Euro. There was much discussion of the fact that foreign holdings of US Treasuries have fallen considerably in the past four weeks. The immediate conclusion is that foreign central banks have “lost faith” in the US and our ability to service our debt. Again looking below the surface we actually find another answer….with a huge contraction in credit availability to many corporations and worldwide hedge funds, central banks are repatriating reserves just in case they are needed to assist those that are being shut out of the borrowing market. Gold does act well and should see $750 before $650 and the dollar will not be defended by the US Treasury as the government soon realizes the only way to soften the fall from a cut back in domestic demand lies with a cheaper dollar that might bring extra sales from foreign countries. The Euro seems to be on its way to 1.40 and the yen to 1.10 without much resistance.

Libor and its implications for the Fed

Libor (London Interbank offering rate) is used by many lenders in both the mortgage and corporate market as the Prime rate has taken a back seat in the lending world. The three month Libor rate has been trading all week at 5.72% which is 47 basis points above the current Fed Funds rate of 5.25% where a normal relationship is just 10 basis points. A 5.72% Libor rate is equivalent to a 5.62% Fed Funds rate and obviously that is not a rate the Fed would even consider in this environment. If the Fed doesn’t act soon to lower the Funds rate by 50 basis points it will have endorsed a tightening at a time when the economy needs lower short term interest rates and just as importantly the markets need to hear from the Fed that the mortgage mess has spread to the general economy and their forecast was wrong. This actually would give the markets confidence that the US central bank was back on track and in control. Markets have suffered from uncertainty over the past four weeks as they are seeing a set of events that was clearly not confirmed by the Fed Chairman or his FOMC members. The Fed will move before September 18th if the Libor rate holds at its current level or the US stock market falls sharply from current levels.

Next week and beyond

Tuesday September 11th at 8am Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak to a Bundesbank Conference on Global Imbalances. Surely the speech will have some soothing parts as the world will be watching and hoping for some recognition of recent economic weakness and a possible Fed easing. He wants to wait until the next FOMC meeting on 9/18 but may not have that luxury if the markets want to push the Fed into action. Friday September 14th brings the retail sales numbers which should again show weakness but its important to review why so many have been so wrong with their forecasts over the past two months. I have spent the better part of 40 years studying economic history, interest rates and the Federal Reserve and always review each economic cycle from beginning to end. Most of us look at the scoreboard to determine who won and lost but I find it useful to analyze the entire race to the finish line and how everyone arrived at their conclusions. Back in May and early June the 10 year was trading at 5.25-5.30% and the consensus was rates were headed higher due to strong second quarter GDP growth which somehow would be followed by an increase in the inflation rate this cancelling any possible Fed easing. I wrote (see archives) that it was a total fake-out and that the experts would be whip-sawed yet again. Much like a football coach preparing for an upcoming game by viewing tapes of their opponents last few games I spend a great deal of time analyzing why the consensus was so wrong and where these same experts are making their bets today. I highly encourage all of my readers to review my past issues in the archive section to see how I reacted to various different economic and interest rate events this year. Very few writers post past issue of their newsletter for fear that their mistakes will be exposed where I applaud readers who wish to learn more about the interest rate world by studying the past and using the information to assist them in future investment decisions.

Obviously this has been an incredible year for the EWW as I wrote during the first six months of this year that rates would not move lower until after June 30th. The 10 year has now moved decisively through the “key” 4.50% level that held in March which allowed the Fed to hold the funds rate at 5.25%. The 10 year rate is headed much lower and wouldn’t surprise me if we pierced the 4.00% level later this year. The realization that the economy is now much weaker than previously thought will soon force those on the sideline to jump in the boat to the interest rate island but they have missed at least 50% of the move. When rates pierce 4.00% it will be time to start moving the other way but for now the green flag flies alone atop the EWW.

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My next interest rate class will be the most important of the year as I will spend a great deal of time on hedging strategies for your real estate portfolio without having to refi any mortgages.